blacken NOTES
INDUSTRY UPDATES
price As inform by Energy Publishing, determine for both low-vol and high-vol metallurgical scorch were down last week at US$233/ c arful tonne and US$223/metric tonne, respectively. Coking sear Benchmark Pricing Outlook Owing primarily to concerns around European and Brazilian demand, hard coking coal pricing is expected to fall hike up in the quarters ahead. Anglo American recently settled with POSCO, establishing a benchmark price of $235/tonne for the quarter ending work on 2012. Japanese steelmakers have reportedly not yet settled, although they are expected to. Industry sources suggest the floor for benchmark pricing should be around the $200 level. While near-term demand blurriness is evident, the possibility of supply disruptions out of Australia due to weather and wear remains a potential source of pricing support. Coal India Production Challenges Earlier this week, Coal India lowered its production designate for the year to at least 440 million tonnes from its initial approximation of 452 million tonnes. Any production shortfalls from Coal India could drive supernumerary import demand and help support coal pricing, particularly for thermal coal. RUSSELL STANLEY, CFA, MBA
explore Analyst, Head of Research russell.stanley@jenningscapital.com +1.416.304.2178
GRACE VONG, CA, CFA
Research Associate grace.
vong@jenningscapital.com +1.416.304.3961
COVERAGE LIST
Ticker TSX:CDU TSX:CMK TSXV:ECX TSX:XRG Recommendation Tar take out footing SPECULATIVE debauch $3.00 SPECULATIVE BUY $4.00 SPECULATIVE BUY $2.00 BUY $6.00 Close Price $1.13 $1.58 $0.58 $3.04 Implied Return 165% 153% 245% 97%
Source: Jennings Capital Inc.
COMMODITY PRICE PERFORMANCE
Coking Coal (US$/tonne) Queensland Index, CCQ Hampton roads Index, CCH?LOW Hampton Roads Index, CCH?HIGH 1?Week counterchange ?1.8% ?0.9% ?1.1% 1?Month Change ?7.1% ?6.8% ?7.3%
WEEKLY METALLURGICAL COAL PRICING UPDATE
Weekly Spot Pricing
$400.00 $350.00 $300.00
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